Module-5-Practical-Application-1

This repo contains the files for the PCMLAI Module 5 Practical Assignment 1

Context

Imagine driving through town and a coupon is delivered to your cell phone for a restaurant near where you are driving. Would you accept that coupon and take a short detour to the restaurant? Would you accept the coupon but use it on a subsequent trip? Would you ignore the coupon entirely? What if the coupon was for a bar instead of a restaurant? What about a coffee house? Would you accept a bar coupon with a minor passenger in the car? What about if it was just you and your partner in the car? Would weather impact the rate of acceptance? What about the time of day?

Obviously, proximity to the business is a factor on whether the coupon is delivered to the driver or not, but what are the factors that determine whether a driver accepts the coupon once it is delivered to them? How would you determine whether a driver is likely to accept a coupon?

Overview

The goal of this project is to use what you know about visualizations and probability distributions to distinguish between customers who accepted a driving coupon versus those that did not.

Data

This data comes to us from the UCI Machine Learning repository and was collected via a survey on Amazon Mechanical Turk. The survey describes different driving scenarios including the destination, current time, weather, passenger, etc., and then ask the person whether he will accept the coupon if he is the driver. Answers that the user will drive there ‘right away’ or ‘later before the coupon expires’ are labeled as ‘Y = 1’ and answers ‘no, I do not want the coupon’ are labeled as ‘Y = 0’. There are five different types of coupons -- less expensive restaurants (under $20), coffee houses, carry out & take away, bar, and more expensive restaurants ($20 - $50).

Deliverables

Your final product should be a brief report that highlights the differences between customers who did and did not accept the coupons. To explore the data you will utilize your knowledge of plotting, statistical summaries, and visualization using Python. You will publish your findings in a public facing github repository as your first portfolio piece.

Data Description

Keep in mind that these values mentioned below are average values.

The attributes of this data set include:

1. User attributes

   • Gender: male, female
   • Age: below 21, 21 to 25, 26 to 30, etc.
   • Marital Status: single, married partner, unmarried partner, or widowed
   • Number of children: 0, 1, or more than 1
   • Education: high school, bachelors degree, associates degree, or graduate degree
   • Occupation: architecture & engineering, business & financial, etc.
   • Annual income: less than \$12500, \$12500 - \$24999, \$25000 - \$37499, etc.
   • Number of times that he/she goes to a bar: 0, less than 1, 1 to 3, 4 to 8 or greater than 8
   • Number of times that he/she buys takeaway food: 0, less than 1, 1 to 3, 4 to 8 or greater than 8
   • Number of times that he/she goes to a coffee house: 0, less than 1, 1 to 3, 4 to 8 or greater than 8
   • Number of times that he/she eats at a restaurant with average expense less than \$20 per person: 0, less than 1, 1 to 3, 4 to 8 or greater than 8
   • Number of times that he/she goes to a bar: 0, less than 1, 1 to 3, 4 to 8 or greater than 8

2. Contextual attributes

   • Driving destination: home, work, or no urgent destination
   • Location of user, coupon and destination: we provide a map to show the geographical location of the user, destination, and the venue, and we mark the distance between each two places with time of driving. The user can see whether the venue is in the same direction as the destination.
   • Weather: sunny, rainy, or snowy
   • Temperature: 30F, 55F, or 80F
   • Time: 10AM, 2PM, or 6PM
   • Passenger: alone, partner, kid(s), or friend(s)

3. Coupon attributes

   • time before it expires: 2 hours or one day

Inital Analysis

Overall the proportion of the total observations that chose to accept the coupon is about 56.84%. With over half of the coupons being accepted, the specific demographics contributing to driver acceptance or rejection are observed. This is first done by visualizing the coupon column to establish an idea as to what type of coupons promote acceptance and rejection.

The highest acceptance seems to be both the restaurant(<20) and coffee house coupons. It should be noted that the highest rejection is also for the coffeehouse coupons. In relation to each other, the restaurant(<20) coupons seem to have better acceptance as the rejection level is lower. Restaurant(<20) and Carry out & Take away coupons are the only coupons with a higher acceptance proportion than rejection.

Next, the overall data can be visualized using a histogram of the acceptance and rejection of coupons based on temperature. The temperature falls into three categories: 30°F, 55°F, and 80°F.

Although rejection based on temperature seems to be higher than acceptance. Warmer temperatures tend to lead to higher acceptance. This goes hand in hand with the fact that sunny weather usually results in an acceptance compared to rainy and snowy weather.

Bar Coupon Analysis

The demographics that affect the acceptance and rejection of bar coupons can be identified once a DataFrame of just the bar coupons is created. From this DataFrame it is identified that the proportion of the total bar coupons that are accepted is about 41.00%. With under half of the coupons being accepted, the specific demographics contributing to driver acceptance or rejection of bar coupons are observed. This is done through 4 different observations.

1. Comparing the bar coupon acceptance rate of drivers who went to the bar 3 times or fewer a month to those who went more.

The acceptance of the bar coupons for people who visit the bar 3 times or less a month (never, less than 1, and 1-3 times a month) is about 37.07%. The acceptance of the bar coupons for people who visit the bar more than 3 times a month (4-8 and greater than 8 times a month) is about 76.88%. It should be noted that these proportions are specific to their own category. The acceptance rate for those visiting the bar 3 times or less a month does not include those who visited the bar more than 3 times a month. This is shown in the barplot. Despite the proportion of acceptance for drivers visiting the bar more than 3 times a month being higher, the barplot shows that when comparing all 5 criteria together, the acceptance for drivers who go to the bar less than once a month or 1-3 times a month have the highest acceptance overall.

2. Comparing the bar coupon acceptance rate of drivers who went to the bar more than once a month and are over the age of 25 to all others.

The acceptance of the bar coupons for drivers who visit the bar more than once a month (1-3, 4-8, and greater than 8 times a month) and are over the age of 25 (26, 31, 36, 41, 46, and 50plus years old) is about 69.52%. The acceptance of the bar coupons for all other drivers is about 33.50%.

3. Comparing the bar coupon acceptance rate of drivers who went to the bar more than once a month, with non-kid passengers, and do not have a farming, fishing, or forestry occupation.

The acceptance of the bar coupons for drivers who visit the bar more than once a month (1-3, 4-8, and greater than 8 times a month) with non-kid passengers (Alone, Friend(s), and Partner), and do not have a farming, fishing, or forestry occupation is about 71.32%. The acceptance of the bar coupons for all other drivers is about 29.60%.

4. Comparing the bar coupon acceptance rate of drivers who go to a cheap restaurant more than 4 times a month, with an income below $50K.

The acceptance of the bar coupons for drivers who go to a cheap restaurant more than 4 times a month (4-8, and greater than 8 times a month) with an income below $50K (Less than $12500','$12500 - $24999','$25000 - $37499','$37500 - $49999) is about 45.35%. The acceptance of the bar coupons for all other drivers is about 40.11%.

Carry out & Take Away Coupon Analysis

The demographics that affect the acceptance and rejection of Carry out & Take Away coupons can be identified once a DataFrame of just the Carry out & Take Away coupons is created. From this DataFrame it is identified that the proportion of the total Carry out & Take Away coupons that are accepted is about 73.55%. With a significant amount of the coupons being accepted, the specific demographics contributing to driver acceptance or rejection of Carry out & Take Away coupons are observed. This is done through 4 different observations.

1. Comparing the Carry out & Take Away coupon acceptance rate of drivers who went get Carry out & Take Away 3 times or fewer a month to those who went more.

The acceptance of the Carry out & Take Away coupons for people who get take out 3 times or less a month (never, less than 1, and 1-3 times a month) is about 72.31%. The acceptance of the Carry out & Take Away coupons for people who get take out more than 3 times a month (4-8 and greater than 8 times a month) is about 74.96%. It should be noted that these proportions are specific to their own category. The acceptance rate for those who get take out 3 times or less a month does not include those who get take out more than 3 times a month. This is shown in the barplot. Despite the proportion of acceptance for drivers who get take out more than 3 times a month being higher, the barplot shows that when comparing all 5 criteria together, the acceptance for drivers who get take out 1-3 and 4-8 times a month have the highest acceptance overall.

2. Comparing the Carry out & Take Away coupon acceptance rate of drivers who got Carry out & Take Away more than once a month with an income below $50K to all others.

The acceptance of the Carry out & Take Away coupons for drivers who get take out more than once a month (1-3, 4-8, and greater than 8 times a month) with an income below $50K (Less than $12500','$12500 - $24999','$25000 - $37499','$37500 - $49999) is about 75.09%. The acceptance of the Carry out & Take Away coupons for all other drivers is about 72.31%.

3. Comparing the Carry out & Take Away coupon acceptance rate of drivers who go to a restaurant priced $20-$50 more than once a month and are under the age of 26 to all others.

The acceptance of the Carry out & Take Away coupons for drivers who go to a reasonably priced restaurant ($20-$50) more than once a month (1-3, 4-8, and greater than 8 times a month) and are under the age of 26 (below21 and 21 years old) is about 75.05%. The acceptance of the Carry out & Take Away coupons for all other drivers is about 73.18%.

4. Comparing the Carry out & Take Away coupon acceptance rate of drivers who got Carry out & Take Away more than once a month, with no passengers, after noon to all others.

The acceptance of the Carry out & Take Away coupons for drivers who get take out more than once a month (1-3, 4-8, and greater than 8 times a month), with no passengers (Alone), after noon (2PM, 6PM, and 10PM) is about 81.33%. The acceptance of the Carry out & Take Away coupons for all other drivers is about 71.50%.

Findings/Actionable Items

1. Initial Analysis

   • When it comes to the type of coupon, coupons for Restaurants(<20) seem to have the best acceptance with acceptance for Carry out & Take away as a close second. Although the acceptance for Coffee House coupons has the overall highest acceptance, its rejection rate is higher. Coupons for Restaurants(<20) and Carry out & Take away are the only coupons with a significantly higher acceptance to rejection. This is likely because these two coupons offer some type of affordable meal. The other options, Coffee House, Bar, Restaurant(20-50, are more luxury/special occasion items. Drivers likely chose the Restaurants(<20) and Carry out & Take away coupons as they offer coupons for an every day need for an affordable price. Amazon could start focusing their coupons for more every day uses and offering the luxery coupons during holidays and birthdays.
   • When it comes to temperature and weather, acceptance is higher when it is about 80°F and sunny outside. This is likely because warmer/nicer weather encourages people to go out. People are less likely to spend time outside of work and home when the weather is cold or rainy/snowy, especially drivers as rain and snow make driving more difficult. Amazon should offer coupons more on warm sunny days. These days may even be best for the more luxurious coupons as people will be more inclined to spend money and time outside.

2. Bar Coupon Analysis

   • The frequency of bar visits affects the acceptance of bar coupons. People who visit the bar less than once and 1-3 times a month have a higher acceptance rate than others. Even drivers who never visit a bar every month accept the bar coupon more than those who go 4-8 and greater than 8 times. This is likely because those who visit the bar less are interested in exploring what it's like. The coupon likely encourages acceptance for people who want a new experience but had stayed away previously due to price.
   • Age seems to have an impact on acceptance for those who visit the bar more than once a month. However, it should be noted that the alternative ages in the data are 21 and below 21. In America, people are legally able to drink once they turn 21. Individuals usually go to the bar on their 21st birthday. However, Amazon should pay attention to the age of its customers as those under 21 have no use for a bar coupon.
   • The type of passenger and occupation of the driver affects the acceptance. Drivers with no kid passengers and an occupation that isn't farming, fishing, or forestry have a significantly higher acceptance rate than all others. This is likely because those with kid passengers cannot go to the bar immediately as children cannot go to the bar. They may also not have time to go to the bar or find someone to watch their kid(s) so that they may go later. It is also unlikely that farmers, fishers, and foresters are in bars. Therefore, Amazon should offer these coupons to drivers with non-kid passengers and city-based occupations.
   • Drivers who go to cheap restaurants often with an income under $50K have a higher acceptance of bar coupons compared to all others but only by about 5%. This is likely because restaurants tend to have bars in them. It's unnecessary to go to the bar when you can get the same thing, including a cheap full meal, at a cheap restaurant.

3. Carry out & Take Away Analysis

   • The frequency of getting carry out & take away affects the acceptance of Carry out & Take Away coupons. People who get take away 1-3 and 4-8 times have the highest acceptance. This is likely because take away has become a common choice for many people whether they are busy or not as many people like having a cooked meal in the comfort of their own homes without having to cook it themselves. Those who get take away more than 8 times and less than once are next in acceptance. This is likely because those who get take away often may not need the coupon as many restaurants offer rewards points. Those who get take away less may enjoy it as a treat but prefer to cook for themselves.
   • The income of drivers slightly affects the acceptance of Carry out & Take Away coupons. Those who have an income below $50K tend to accept the coupon more than all others. Those with higher income may refuse coupons as they feel they can afford to get take out without them. Take out is a feature utilized by those with less money like the lower to middle class. However, it should be noted that there are a few income ranges above $50K that classify as mid-upper middle class. This may be why the proportions of acceptance for both sides are close.
   • The age and type of restaurant seem to have an effect on the acceptance of Carry out & Take Away coupons. Individuals who are under 26 and go to a restaurant priced $20-$50 are more likely to accept Carry out & Take Away coupons compared to all others. This is likely because take away is a common use for younger generations who are working and in school who may not have the time or skills to cook for themselves. The price of the restaurant also determines acceptance as cheaper restaurants may not need a coupon as they are already cheap. These restaurants may not require take away as the food may be able to be eaten quickly inside. More expensive restaurants require more money and time. Amazon should focus on providing Carry out & Take Away coupons for restaurants priced $20-$50 to drivers below 26 years old.
   • The time of day seems to affect the acceptance of Carry out & Take Away coupons. Those who get take out more than once a month are more likely to accept the coupon after noon, specifically around 2PM, 6PM, and 10PM. This is likely because the afternoon and nighttime are when dinner and lunch are eaten. Most people get take out for dinner and lunch as opposed to breakfast. This is also because the afternoon/nighttime is when people get off of work or out of school. They may not have the time or energy to cook for themselves so they get take out. Amazon should focus on offering Carry out & Take Away coupons during the afternoon and nighttime.

Next Steps

Although many observations and conclusions can be drawn from this data, it should be noted that further testing and analysis are required. For starters, missing data should be fixed before analysis, and during data collection, to obtain a more accurate analysis. More comparisons between demographics can and should be made. Other demographics, like free time, length of distance, and urgent destination, can be added.