Cylinder Seal

Economic, environmental, social, and cultural operating model for Iraq.

Cylinder Seal is primarily a national economic-system proposal: a way to convert oil income, project finance, existing Iraqi facilities, Iraqi labor, domestic production, tourism, civic works, culture, and environmental repair into auditable cashflows and public benefits.

The main subject is the economy. Oil income becomes productive capital; domestic industry, services, tourism, infrastructure, finance, and civic work create measured value; ministries are funded through explicit taxes, levies, and service contracts; citizens benefit through wages, services, credit access, civic-work income, and equal dividends from audited surplus.

The Cylinder Seal software sits behind that model as an evidence, settlement, and analytics layer. It is included to test how contracts, payments, invoices, local-content evidence, public transfers, tax flows, credit features, and dashboards could be measured. The code is a pilot-grade prototype, not the main claim of the repository. It is not production CBDC infrastructure, not an official Central Bank of Iraq project, and not an externally validated macroeconomic forecast.

Economic Model

The front-door subject is the national economic cycle:

Oil income and project finance
  -> productive Iraqi assets
  -> domestic goods, services, infrastructure, tourism, exports, and civic work
  -> booked cash plus source-tagged public benefits
  -> maintenance, debt service, Treasury levy, retained earnings
  -> citizen dividends only from audited distributable surplus

The model has six practical rules:

1. No cash claim without settled evidence.
2. No benefit claim without source-tagged measurement.
3. No capital allocation without legal, fiscal, debt, revenue, FX, maintenance, audit, privacy, and anti-capture gates.
4. No dividend from oil receipts, borrowing, asset revaluation, or estimated GDP effects.
5. Existing Iraqi facilities are screened before greenfield capex.
6. Digital IQD evidence exists to make the economy bankable and governable, not to overstate readiness.

System Map

Layer	Purpose	Main document
Unified model	Connects Digital IQD, INDHC, ministries, banks, producers, tourism, green capital, rail, taxes, reinvestment, civic work, and dividends into one accounting structure.	Unified economic model
Business value chains	Shows sector value chains, funding lanes, repayment paths, and society/economy feedback loops.	Business value chain charts
Operating logic	Defines ledgers, hard gates, scorecards, waterfalls, cash/benefit conversion, capital allocation, dashboards, and escalation rules.	National economic operating logic
Legal roadmap	Maps the authority path for the oil lockbox, INDHC, citizen entitlements, Digital IQD, project debt, securities, privacy, emergency powers, federalism, and appeals.	National legal and institutional roadmap
Project pipeline	Converts sector ambition into project families with capex, revenue source, DSCR, FX exposure, facility reuse, environmental, legal, and evidence gates.	Project pipeline and investment gates
Political economy	Models resistance, capture risk, reform coalition strength, service continuity, staff transition, procurement transparency, and pause/rollback rules.	Political-economy transition and anti-capture model
Federalism equity	Controls governorate/regional authority, local compact readiness, needs-adjusted allocation fairness, local revenue/jobs/suppliers, grievance resolution, data publication, audit, appeals, and land/water/heritage disputes.	Federalism, governorate equity, and local compacts
Fiscal stress	Tests oil-equity caps, stressed DSCR, FX mismatch, maintenance gaps, guarantees, collection weakness, capex overruns, and dividend affordability under downside cases.	Fiscal stress and contingent liability model
Program sequencing	Decides whether each domain is not ready, evidence-only, pilot, build, controlled scale, or hold/rollback based on dependencies and gates.	National program sequencing and dependency control
Procurement integrity	Controls beneficial ownership, competition depth, price benchmarks, single-source justification, contract variations, milestone evidence, payment discipline, quality, and SME participation.	Procurement integrity and market discipline
Benefit realization	Audits whether claimed cashflows, public benefits, avoided costs, service outcomes, and dividends are measured, attributable, audited, and correctly classified.	Benefit realization and claim audit
Public-finance architecture	Proposes an oil-income lockbox, citizen beneficial shares, ministry-funding feedback, cash formalization controls, and Digital IQD dividends.	National dividend holding company
Ten-year productive plan	Maps import substitution, profitable subsidiaries, strategic resilience, electronics, HVAC, water, irrigation, food, tourism, green capital, rail, raw-material processing, and Iraqi-only staffing.	INDHC ten-year plan
Affordability and cashflow	Uses IMF-baseline constraints to distinguish fiscal-safe, constrained-base, and strategic-upper envelopes.	Iraq quantified affordability model
Growth and benefits	Quantifies scenario paths for non-oil growth, infrastructure, environmental, social, cultural, and dividend benefits.	Growth model, benefits model
Facility recycling	Screens underutilized Iraqi assets before greenfield builds and maps international credit, PPP, domestic bond/sukuk/equity, local-bank, and diaspora finance lanes.	Facility recycling and capital markets
Import, services, diaspora	Adds missing import screens, attraction-based service production, and diaspora income, expertise, capital, marketing, and distribution channels.	Import, services, and diaspora expansion
Industrial champions	Reframes the industrial-group idea as sectoral Iraqi production champions with conditional demand, credit, export discipline, competition gates, and anti-capture controls.	Digitally governed industrial champions
Civic work	Defines verified public-value work, training, care, environmental restoration, sport, culture, municipal repair, and disaster resilience.	National civic work system
Ministry transition	Lists candidate functions to deprecate, merge, regulate, corporatize, or sunset after legal, service-continuity, staff, and audit gates pass.	Ministry transition roadmap

Business Charts

The strategy is visualized as business chains rather than only policy prose:

Chart	What it demonstrates
Business value chain overview	How capital, Digital IQD evidence, facility reuse, sectors, markets, cash waterfalls, public benefits, and risk gates connect.
Sector value chain matrix	Asset base, operations, customers, revenue, public benefit, and evidence controls for every current sector.
Capital and repayment lanes	Which sources of capital fit which sectors and how repayment or return works.
Society and economy feedback loop	How citizens benefit through wages, local goods, civic work, public services, credit histories, and dividends from audited surplus.
System and financial flow diagrams	End-to-end financial-flow combinations, with software architecture treated as an implementation appendix.

Current Status

Status	Scope
Economic-system front door	Unified economic architecture, business value-chain charts, source discipline, legal/institutional roadmap, political-economy controls, project pipeline, affordability framing, ministry transition, civic work, facility recycling, industrial champions, tourism, diaspora channels, domestic capital markets, and long-horizon benefit scenarios.
Governance and cashflow model	Oil-income lockbox, capital allocation gates, treasury levy, debt-service waterfalls, retained earnings, audited dividend constraints, ministry feedback mechanisms, and citizen benefit channels.
Sector production model	Import substitution, profitable domestic subsidiaries, defence manufacturing, electronics, HVAC, water desalination, irrigation, food substitution, raw-material post-processing, Open Source Rail, green technology, tourism, services, and cultural production, reduced to project families before capital allocation.
Evidence software appendix	Rust analytics modules, SQL tables, payment-rail primitives, dashboard routes, and tests exist only to demonstrate how the economic model could be measured and audited.
Not production-ready	Real CBDC issuance, national identity/KYC integration, HSM or secure-element custody, audited offline double-spend prevention, live multi-peer deployment, CBI/core-banking integration, privacy review, disaster recovery, and independent economic validation.

The repo is suitable first for policy review, economic-model critique, and scenario debate. The software appendix can support demo workflows and technical review, but it should not be represented as ready for national-scale deployment or as a validated investment program.

Source Discipline

The front README intentionally does not present national-scale deployment timelines, sovereign-rating upgrade paths, diaspora capital figures, or Year 5 benefit ranges as project deliverables. Scenario figures belong only in the source-disciplined documents with explicit caveats and independent-validation requirements.

Current public facts that shape the framing:

• Iraq's final 2024 census count was reported at 46.1 million people, not the older approximately 43 million baseline used in earlier drafts. Source: AP, Feb. 24, 2025.
• Iraq's National Financial Inclusion Strategy 2025-2029 targets account ownership of 50% by 2030 and digital payment usage of 85%. Sources: CBI NFIS PDF, Arab Monetary Fund.
• On June 12, 2026, S&P affirmed Iraq at B-/B, removed the long-term rating from CreditWatch negative, and kept a negative outlook. Source: S&P Global Ratings.
• Public sources continue to describe Iraq as highly oil-revenue-dependent and fiscally exposed to rigid spending and weak non-oil revenues. Sources: EIA Iraq analysis, EITI Iraq country page, IMF Iraq 2025 Article IV.

See Economic assumptions for source discipline and current public facts.

Production Readiness Boundary

Before this could be evaluated as real payment or economic infrastructure, the project would need at minimum:

• legal authority for Digital IQD, INDHC, citizen entitlements, oil-income allocation, borrowing, securities issuance, privacy, and dispute resolution;
• a formal threat model for wallets, POS devices, offline settlement, super-peers, operator access, and emergency controls;
• hardware-backed key custody and recovery design;
• offline double-spend limits backed by secure monotonic counters or equivalent attestation;
• privacy architecture separating payment data, identity data, regulatory access, and aggregate economic analytics;
• real multi-node consensus deployment with operational runbooks and failover tests;
• project-level feasibility studies, debt-capacity analysis, procurement sequencing, and independent macroeconomic review;
• legal and institutional validation for the lockbox, INDHC, citizen shares, federal/governorate compacts, project finance, domestic securities, privacy, appeals, and emergency powers;
• independent security audit, compliance review, and economic model validation.

Software Appendix

This is intentionally a back-of-README section. The software is not the main policy claim; it is an evidence rail for testing whether the economic model can be measured, audited, settled, and challenged without relying on narrative claims alone.

The workspace is organized as focused Rust crates:

Area	Crates and files
Core ledger models	crates/cs-core, crates/cs-storage
Sync and consensus	crates/cs-sync, crates/cs-consensus, proto/chain_sync.proto
Policy, AML, credit	crates/cs-policy, crates/cs-credit, crates/cs-exchange, crates/cs-feeds
APIs and node runtime	crates/cs-api, crates/cs-node
POS and mobile surfaces	crates/cs-pos, crates/cs-mobile-core, android/, ios/
CBI-style dashboard and analytics	crates/cbi-dashboard, crates/cs-analytics
Specification tests	crates/cs-tests

Technical review entry points:

• Technical primitives maps offline payments, double-spend checks, wire-format primitives, Raft, key handling, privacy, AML, and disaster recovery to code and remaining gaps.
• Implementation status summarizes current prototype scope and important gaps.
• Specification and fixture results and cs-tests README describe test evidence and missing live PostgreSQL/Redis coverage.
• API reference documents dashboard endpoints.
• Security model lists threat areas and production requirements.

Software Appendix: Scenario Analytics

The cs-analytics crate carries executable planning primitives for parts of the economic model. These are scenario engines, not calibrated national forecasts.

Model	Code	Migration
Economic operating kernel	crates/cs-analytics/src/economic_operating.rs	migrations/20260702000001_economic_operating_kernel.sql
Sovereign holding capital plan	crates/cs-analytics/src/sovereign_holding.rs	migrations/20260703000001_sovereign_holding_capital_plan.sql
Economic cycle and citizen income	crates/cs-analytics/src/economic_cycle.rs	migrations/20260704000001_economic_cycle_projection.sql
Integrated growth impact	crates/cs-analytics/src/growth_impact.rs	migrations/20260705000001_growth_impact_projection.sql
Comprehensive benefits	crates/cs-analytics/src/comprehensive_benefits.rs	migrations/20260706000001_comprehensive_benefits_projection.sql
Production capacity and import substitution	crates/cs-analytics/src/production_capacity.rs	migrations/20260707000001_production_capacity_projection.sql
Strategic resilience	crates/cs-analytics/src/strategic_resilience.rs	migrations/20260708000001_strategic_resilience_projection.sql
Tourism and tradable services	crates/cs-analytics/src/tourism_services.rs	migrations/20260709000001_tourism_services_projection.sql
Diaspora channels	crates/cs-analytics/src/diaspora_channels.rs	migrations/20260710000001_diaspora_channels_projection.sql
Facility recycling and capital markets	crates/cs-analytics/src/facility_recycling.rs	migrations/20260711000001_facility_recycling_projection.sql
Political-economy transition and anti-capture	crates/cs-analytics/src/political_economy.rs	migrations/20260712000001_political_economy_transition.sql
Fiscal stress and contingent liabilities	crates/cs-analytics/src/fiscal_stress.rs	migrations/20260713000001_fiscal_stress_projection.sql
Program sequencing and dependencies	crates/cs-analytics/src/program_sequencing.rs	migrations/20260714000001_program_sequencing.sql
Benefit realization and claim audit	crates/cs-analytics/src/benefit_realization.rs	migrations/20260715000001_benefit_realization_claim_audit.sql
Procurement integrity and market discipline	crates/cs-analytics/src/procurement_integrity.rs	migrations/20260716000001_procurement_integrity.sql
Federalism, governorate equity, and local compacts	crates/cs-analytics/src/federalism_equity.rs	migrations/20260717000001_federalism_equity_compact.sql

Developer Appendix: Local Software Demo

Install Rust and Docker if you want to run the dashboard stack locally. The dashboard currently uses PostgreSQL and Redis. POS-local SQLite remains only for the device-side terminal store, not for the dashboard runtime.

# Start PostgreSQL and Redis.
cp .env.example .env
docker compose up -d

# Build the main dashboard package.
cargo build --package cbi-dashboard

# Run the dashboard.
export DATABASE_URL="postgresql://postgres:${DB_PASSWORD:-change-me-dev-only}@localhost:5432/cylinder_seal"
cargo run --package cbi-dashboard

The dashboard defaults to http://127.0.0.1:8081 when run locally. Demo operators are seeded only for local development; see .env.example and API_REFERENCE.md before using them.

docker-compose.yml reads DB_PASSWORD from .env and falls back to change-me-dev-only for local demos. Change all demo secrets before sharing, deploying, or connecting real systems.

Repository Hygiene

Local artifacts such as generated databases, Redis dumps, virtualenvs, local env files, ad hoc logs, and build outputs are ignored. Do not commit generated database state.