This project provides a full-scope fundamental valuation of Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL: 2222) using a professional-grade 3-statement model, Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, and Comparable Company Analysis (Comps).
The model is structured for institutional-level use, with scenario sensitivity, dynamic assumptions, and presentation-ready outputs. All input data has been taken from publicly available Aramco financial reports (2022–2024).
- Company: Saudi Aramco
- Ticker: 2222.SR
- Valuation Date: June 2025
- Currency: SAR (with USD conversions where appropriate)
- Methods Used:
- 3-Statement Forecast Model (2025–2029)
- DCF with perpetuity growth method
- Trading Comps using global oil majors
- WACC calculation based on market inputs
- Sensitivity analysis (WACC vs Terminal Growth)
| File/Folder | Description |
|---|---|
Final_Report_Saudi Aramco.pdf |
A 17-page investment-grade valuation report detailing methodology, assumptions, outputs, and investment recommendation |
Saudi_Aramco_Valuation.xlsx |
Full Excel model including assumptions, 3-statement forecast, DCF valuation, and comps model |
- Forecast Horizon: FY2025–FY2029
- WACC: 9.05% (based on CAPM and capital structure)
- Terminal Growth Rate: 0.5% - 1.5%
- UFCF calculated as:
EBIT*(1 – tax) + D&A – CapEx – ΔWorking Capital - Sensitivity analysis across WACC and perpetuity growth rate
- Peer Set: ExxonMobil (US), Chevron (US),Shell (UK/NL), BP (UK), TotalEnergies (France), Petrobras (Brazil), CNPC/PetroChina (China), ENI (Italy).
- Valuation multiples: EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, P/E
- Market data from public filings and investor platforms (as of June 2025)
| Method | Implied Value/Share |
|---|---|
| DCF – Base Case | $4.99 |
| DCF – Range | $3.32 – $6.67 |
| Comps – EV/Revenue | $1.69 |
| Comps – EV/EBITDA | $5.90 |
| Comps – P/E | $6.26 |
| Market Price (21.06.2025) | $6.62 |
Recommendation: HOLD
SLB appears undervalued on a DCF basis with strong cash flows, while trading at a reasonable premium to comps due to scale, diversification, and digital innovation leadership.
All financial data was sourced from Saudi Aramco’s 2022–2024 Annual Reports and external macroeconomic data from the IEA, Reuters, and Bloomberg (see references in PDF report).
This project was independently executed by Arsen Tagibekov using financial modeling best practices, with AI-assisted support from ChatGPT (OpenAI) for logic structuring, Excel validation, and formatting feedback.