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Retail Intelligence & AI-Powered Sales Forecasting

Project Overview

This project is an end-to-end data science solution designed to optimize retail operations. It transforms 73,000+ raw transactions into a strategic decision-making engine using a dual-layered AI approach: identifying high-value store segments and forecasting revenue trends.

Technical Stack

  • Analytics Engine: Python (Pandas, Scikit-Learn, XGBoost)
  • Business Intelligence: Power BI (Interactive Executive Dashboards)
  • Clustering: K-Means for Store Tiering
  • Forecasting: XGBoost Regression

Key Business Insights

  • The Promo Paradox: Statistical T-Testing revealed a p-value of 0.68, proving that broad promotions were not significantly driving revenue lift—leading to a recommendation to pivot to Tier-specific premium experiences.
  • Predictive Accuracy: The XGBoost model achieved a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of $4,718, providing a high-confidence window for inventory and labor scheduling.
  • Strategic Segmentation: Successfully clustered 100+ locations into Flagship (Tier 1), Growth (Tier 2), and Value (Tier 3) stores for targeted marketing spend.

Repository Contents

  • Retail_Forecasting_Engine.ipynb: Full Python pipeline for cleaning, clustering, and modeling.
  • Retail_Intelligence_Dashboard.pbix: Interactive Power BI report (Requires Power BI Desktop).
  • Final_Enterprise_Master_Data.csv: The "Golden Dataset" engineered for the final model.
  • Executive_Summary.pdf: Formal business case and strategic recommendations.

How to Use

  1. Model: Run the Jupyter Notebook to see the data engineering and model validation steps.
  2. Dashboard: Open the .pbix file to interact with the revenue heatmaps and price elasticity charts.

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Retail Intelligence & AI-Powered Sales Forecasting System. Combines XGBoost for predictive analytics and K-Means for store clustering. Includes an interactive Power BI dashboard for executive-level strategy and price elasticity insights.

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