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Add KEV ransomware EPSS evidence gates#1471

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jddark62:improve/patch-epss-kev-ransomware-1466
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Add KEV ransomware EPSS evidence gates#1471
jddark62 wants to merge 1 commit into
UnitOneAI:mainfrom
jddark62:improve/patch-epss-kev-ransomware-1466

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@jddark62

@jddark62 jddark62 commented Jun 6, 2026

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Summary

Closes #1466.

This updates patch-prioritization with enforceable evidence gates for active exploitation, KEV ransomware usage, EPSS trend acceleration, low-EPSS deferral guardrails, compensating-control TTL, and virtual patching for systems that cannot be physically patched inside SLA.

What Changed

  • Add PATCH-ACTIVE-01 through PATCH-ACTIVE-08 checks for missing KEV enrichment, KEV ransomware emergency escalation, low-EPSS-only deferrals, unaccelerated rising EPSS trends, missing exception TTL, incomplete virtual patch evidence, unhandled unpatchable systems, and missing Not Evaluable states.
  • Add decision rules for P0 KEV ransomware handling, low-EPSS deferral, EPSS rising/surging acceleration, virtual patch TTL caps, and Not Evaluable evidence gaps.
  • Extend vulnerability inventory with KEV ransomware and active-exploitation evidence fields.
  • Add low-EPSS deferral and ransomware KEV override tier-assignment rules.
  • Add exception TTL fields to compensating-control assessment.
  • Add RASP/API gateway virtual patching as a compensating control, with rule ID, protected scope, bypass test, telemetry, and rollback evidence requirements.
  • Extend report output with active exploitation / deferral evidence and virtual patch / exception TTL matrices.
  • Add six YAML fixtures covering KEV ransomware under-prioritization, CVSS-critical low-EPSS false deferral, rising EPSS without acceleration, missing compensating-control TTL, incomplete virtual patch evidence, and a complete risk-based deferral package.

Validation

  • git diff --check
  • Parsed all 6 YAML fixtures successfully
  • Markdown fence balance check
  • Marker/content scan for PATCH-ACTIVE, knownRansomwareCampaignUse, KEV ransomware, low EPSS, virtual patching, exception TTL, Not Evaluable, and 1.0.1
  • Live official reference checks returned HTTP 200 for CISA KEV JSON, FIRST EPSS API/docs, SSVC, and CISA BOD 22-01
  • Privacy scan for local paths, personal email, and workspace identifiers

Bounty Info

  • I have read and agree to the CONTRIBUTING.md bounty terms.
  • Preferred payment method can be coordinated privately after maintainer acceptance.

/claim #1466

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[REVIEW] patch-prioritization: add EPSS v3 'Active Exploitation' weighting and CISA KEV 'Ransomware' labels

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