(dev/gfs.v17) Fix 2-meter water vapor moist bias in western US by DavidHuber-NOAA · Pull Request #5011 · NOAA-EMC/global-workflow

DavidHuber-NOAA · 2026-06-12T17:06:04Z

Description

This resolves the moist bias seen in 2-meter water vapor in the western US.

Type of change

Bug fix (fixes something broken)
New feature (adds functionality)
Maintenance (code refactor, clean-up, new CI test, etc.)

Change characteristics

Is this change expected to change outputs YES
- GFS
- GEFS
- SFS
- GCAFS
Is this a breaking change (a change in existing functionality)? NO
Does this change require a documentation update? NO
Does this change require an update to any of the following submodules? YES
- GFS-utils Modify 2m Q for GFSv17 Bufr Sounding to branch production/GFS.v17.0.0 gfs-utils#180
- UFS-weather-model [production/GFS.v17] Update UPP for 2-m dewpoint moist bias over western CONUS ufs-community/ufs-weather-model#3252

How has this been tested?

Initial WCOSS2 CI testing passed. Offline tests of gfs-utils were run and passed by @BoCui-NOAA. UFS WM, and UPP tests were passed in their respective PRs (ufs-community/ufs-weather-model#3252 and NOAA-EMC/UPP#1548). Additional tests are underway.

Checklist

Any dependent changes have been merged and published
My code follows the style guidelines of this project
I have performed a self-review of my own code
My changes generate no new warnings
New and existing tests pass with my changes
This change is covered by an existing CI test or a new one has been added

DavidHuber-NOAA · 2026-06-15T13:21:46Z

Initial tests all passed on WCOSS2. Noting that the UPP and WM still need to be updated to the official hashes.

Mon Jun 15 13:19:54 UTC 2026
******** C48_ATM_q2m_fix ********
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202112211200        Done    Jun 12 2026 19:45:17    Jun 13 2026 02:20:25
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202112201200        Done    Jun 12 2026 18:20:46    Jun 12 2026 19:40:16
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202112210000        Done    Jun 12 2026 18:20:46    Jun 12 2026 22:45:13
202112211800        Done    Jun 12 2026 19:45:18    Jun 12 2026 22:55:35

DavidHuber-NOAA · 2026-06-15T16:01:09Z

Opening for review, but adding a needs submodule update label while upstream submodules are being updated.

…into fix/q2m

WenMeng-NOAA · 2026-06-17T16:15:07Z

@DavidHuber-NOAA The ufs-weather-model production/GFS.v17 branch has committed @d4b7b56 to include updates for this 2-m dewpoint issue. Please sync your branch accordingly. Note: @barlage would like to keep these 2-m dewpoint-related changes in the dev/gfs.v17 branch and not sync them to the develop branch, as they are intended only for the GFS v17 implementation.

JessicaMeixner-NOAA · 2026-06-17T16:33:13Z

I will make another round of CI tests manually updating the ufs-weather-model hash to make sure this is ready to be merged tomorrow morning.

DavidHuber-NOAA · 2026-06-18T11:14:36Z

@JessicaMeixner-NOAA @WenMeng-NOAA the WM hash has been updated. I have removed the 'needs submodule update' label and am now adding reviewers. Please let me know how testing went.

BoCui-NOAA · 2026-06-18T11:58:35Z

@DavidHuber-NOAA I checked the gfs-utils submodule in this PR, and it points to the NOAA-EMC/gfs-utils repository on the production/GFS.v17.0.0 branch at commit 7f6e742 ( bufr q2m adjustment). Looks good.

WenMeng-NOAA

The update to the hash of ufs_model.fd looks good to me,

JessicaMeixner-NOAA

******** /lfs/h2/emc/couple/noscrub/jessica.meixner/pr5011/RUNTESTS/EXPDIR/C48_ATM_ufs2m ********
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202103241800        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:25    Jun 17 2026 18:15:13
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202103241800        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:19    Jun 17 2026 18:15:36
202103250000        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:19    Jun 17 2026 19:55:46

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   CYCLE         STATE           ACTIVATED              DEACTIVATED     
202103231200        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:17    Jun 17 2026 21:10:45
202103231800        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:17    Jun 17 2026 21:00:12

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202112211200        Done    Jun 17 2026 18:20:34    Jun 18 2026 01:20:37
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202112201800        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:11    Jun 17 2026 18:20:40
202112210000        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:11    Jun 17 2026 20:50:48
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202112201200        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:42    Jun 17 2026 18:25:38
202112201800        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:42    Jun 17 2026 21:00:55
202112210000        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:42    Jun 17 2026 21:00:55

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   CYCLE         STATE           ACTIVATED              DEACTIVATED     
202205150600        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:39    Jun 17 2026 18:25:36
202205151200        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:39    Jun 17 2026 21:05:39
202205151800        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:39    Jun 17 2026 21:05:39

******** /lfs/h2/emc/couple/noscrub/jessica.meixner/pr5011/RUNTESTS/EXPDIR/C96C48mx500_S2SW_cyc_gfs_ufs2m ********
   CYCLE         STATE           ACTIVATED              DEACTIVATED     
202112201200        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:20    Jun 17 2026 18:15:19
202112201800        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:20    Jun 17 2026 21:30:45
202112210000        Done    Jun 17 2026 17:55:20    Jun 17 2026 21:55:44
202112211800        Done    Jun 17 2026 18:20:30    Jun 17 2026 22:05:37

barlage · 2026-06-18T13:25:49Z

@DavidHuber-NOAA The ufs-weather-model production/GFS.v17 branch has committed @d4b7b56 to include updates for this 2-m dewpoint issue. Please sync your branch accordingly. Note: @barlage would like to keep these 2-m dewpoint-related changes in the dev/gfs.v17 branch and not sync them to the develop branch, as they are intended only for the GFS v17 implementation.

I would like to note that I don't believe it was just me who wants to keep these changes isolated. It was a group decision. This fix is specific to concerns identified in the GFS v17 field evaluation. A more general fix is being worked on in the model, which would make these changes obsolete, hence the choice to not need to revert them in the near future.

barlage

I traced the code in the multiple pathways that were changed and everything looks correct. Testing at coarse and full resolution produced the expected impacts.

WenMeng-NOAA · 2026-06-18T14:37:45Z

@DavidHuber-NOAA The ufs-weather-model production/GFS.v17 branch has committed @d4b7b56 to include updates for this 2-m dewpoint issue. Please sync your branch accordingly. Note: @barlage would like to keep these 2-m dewpoint-related changes in the dev/gfs.v17 branch and not sync them to the develop branch, as they are intended only for the GFS v17 implementation.

I would like to note that I don't believe it was just me who wants to keep these changes isolated. It was a group decision. This fix is specific to concerns identified in the GFS v17 field evaluation. A more general fix is being worked on in the model, which would make these changes obsolete, hence the choice to not need to revert them in the near future.

@barlage Thanks for clarifying.

ClaraDraper-NOAA and others added 7 commits June 4, 2026 12:35

gfs_utils and ufs_model changes with fixes for the q2m post diagnostic.

a087af1

Wen's latest commit.

226a9d8

Updates ufs_model hash. Reverted gfs_utils to develop.

117c870

Bo's gfs_utils update.

420f3f8

Merge remote-tracking branch 'emc/dev/gfs.v17' into fix/q2m

015385e

Update gfs-utils to the head of production/GFS.v17 (including q2m fixes)

5fcd41d

Update path for gfs-utils

a370942

Merge branch 'dev/gfs.v17' into fix/q2m

be2d3f8

DavidHuber-NOAA marked this pull request as ready for review June 15, 2026 16:00

DavidHuber-NOAA requested a review from TravisElless-NOAA as a code owner June 15, 2026 16:00

DavidHuber-NOAA added the needs submodule update Requires submodule PRs to be merged label Jun 15, 2026

DavidHuber-NOAA requested a review from ClaraDraper-NOAA June 15, 2026 16:01

DavidHuber-NOAA added 2 commits June 17, 2026 11:56

Update UFS WM hash

a569ec4

Merge branch 'fix/q2m' of github.com:davidhuber-noaa/global-workflow …

0c0454d

…into fix/q2m

DavidHuber-NOAA added 2 commits June 18, 2026 11:07

Merge remote-tracking branch 'emc/dev/gfs.v17' into fix/q2m

93a6084

Update WM hash to head of production/GFS.v17 (including q2m fix)

84b5f56

DavidHuber-NOAA removed the needs submodule update Requires submodule PRs to be merged label Jun 18, 2026

DavidHuber-NOAA requested review from BoCui-NOAA, CatherineThomas-NOAA, JessicaMeixner-NOAA, RuiyuSun, WenMeng-NOAA and barlage June 18, 2026 11:15

WenMeng-NOAA approved these changes Jun 18, 2026

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JessicaMeixner-NOAA approved these changes Jun 18, 2026

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barlage approved these changes Jun 18, 2026

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BoCui-NOAA approved these changes Jun 18, 2026

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DavidHuber-NOAA added the CI-Wcoss2-Passed CI testing on WCOSS for this PR has completed successfully label Jun 18, 2026

DavidHuber-NOAA merged commit e42f47a into NOAA-EMC:dev/gfs.v17 Jun 18, 2026
7 checks passed

DavidHuber-NOAA mentioned this pull request Jun 18, 2026

Submodules updates to v17 required to fix q2m #4971

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(dev/gfs.v17) Fix 2-meter water vapor moist bias in western US#5011

(dev/gfs.v17) Fix 2-meter water vapor moist bias in western US#5011
DavidHuber-NOAA merged 12 commits into
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