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Update ogphl_default_parameters.json#48

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SeaCelo merged 2 commits into
EAPD-DRB:mainfrom
daxfabella:update-ogphl-params
May 11, 2026
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Update ogphl_default_parameters.json#48
SeaCelo merged 2 commits into
EAPD-DRB:mainfrom
daxfabella:update-ogphl-params

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@daxfabella

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@SeaCelo

SeaCelo commented May 10, 2026

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Confirmed locally that the PR runs end-to-end. Ran examples/run_og_phl.py with update_from_api=False to test the JSON values in isolation. Both baseline and reform (corporate income tax cut to 20%, debt ratio raised to 1.15) converge cleanly.

Percentage changes vs baseline:

Variable 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2026-2035 SS
GDP ($Y_t$) 0.74 0.72 0.73 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.69 0.71 0.64
Consumption ($C_t$) 0.41 0.60 0.45 0.48 0.51 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.52 0.67
Capital Stock ($K_t$) 1.35 1.32 1.33 1.31 1.30 1.30 1.29 1.28 1.27 1.26 1.30 1.19
Labor ($L_t$) 0.03 -0.00 0.01 -0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.01 -0.08
Real interest rate ($r_t$) 0.04 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.12 0.23
Wage rate ($w_t$) 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.72

@SeaCelo

SeaCelo commented May 10, 2026

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@daxfabella
Updating the calibration docs and just need one detail to make alpha_T reproducible:

For alpha_T = 0.0448 (World Bank WDI 2024): which WDI indicator(s) and what formula?

@daxfabella

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@daxfabella Updating the calibration docs and just need one detail to make alpha_T reproducible:

For alpha_T = 0.0448 (World Bank WDI 2024): which WDI indicator(s) and what formula?

@SeaCelo this is from our previous discussion on the calibration on government transfers, since we could not determine the original IMF source: #45

The values are from 2023 not 2024, and I made a correction on the docs. Another calibration is welcome if we can trace the source. See screenshot for reference:

Screenshot 2026-05-11 at 9 38 20 AM

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SeaCelo commented May 11, 2026

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@daxfabella Thanks for tracing this back to #45 — really helpful. Agreed that the World Bank WDI source is a better call here. The old IMF value was a workaround and its link is broken anyway, so this is much cleaner. I'll update the docs to use 2023 per your correction.

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Codecov Report

✅ All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests.
✅ Project coverage is 84.45%. Comparing base (4c2ecae) to head (dd96244).
⚠️ Report is 2 commits behind head on main.

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@SeaCelo

SeaCelo commented May 11, 2026

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@daxfabella thanks for your work on this. Great updates. Merging

@SeaCelo SeaCelo merged commit 290a3b2 into EAPD-DRB:main May 11, 2026
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SeaCelo added a commit to SeaCelo/OG-PHL that referenced this pull request May 11, 2026
SeaCelo added a commit that referenced this pull request May 11, 2026
Update calibration docs to match PR #48 parameter values and sources
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