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Changelog

2026-04-22

Changed

  • Default chart x-axis range now auto-computed from current observation: starts 3 months before (Jan 2026 for current conditions) and extends 17 months ahead. Previously hardcoded to Jul 2025 → Jul 2027, which left a stale historical tail on the left
  • Threshold annotation labels staggered horizontally across the chart (8% → 28% → 48% → 68% → 85% → 95% positions) instead of all stacking at the start/end edges. Eliminates the label pileups that obscured the chart
  • Chart container height bumped (480px → 540px desktop, 340px → 380px mobile) and chart layout padding added so x-axis date labels render fully without clipping
  • Release Rate Multiplier slider is now disabled and visually grayed out when Auto-tier or Emergency policies are active, since those policies override the slider value with BOR's tier structure. Description text updated to explain the override

2026-04-21

Added

  • predictSpringNetGain() now clamps regression output to physical bounds [-1.5, +8.0] MAF. Prevents nonsensical extrapolation at very low or high SWE (the raw regression predicted -4.3 MAF at April 2026's SWE ≈ 1,034, which is physically implausible when BOR operating authorities constrain releases)
  • forecast() gains two new optional parameters:
    • dynamicReleases: boolean — release multiplier is computed per-step from current elevation using BOR's 2007 Interim Guidelines + 2024 SEIS ROD Section 6(E) tier structure (1.10x above 3,575 → 1.00x above 3,525 → 0.95x above 3,500 → 0.80x above 3,490 → 0.67x below)
    • droaMAF: number — simulates upstream augmentation (Flaming Gorge / Blue Mesa / Navajo per the 2019 DROA) by adding the total evenly over droaDurationMonths (default 12)
  • releaseMultiplierForElevation() and droaMonthlyBoost() helpers exported
  • BOR_APR2026_MOST_PROBABLE — 16-month reference dataset from the April 17, 2026 24-Month Study, Model Run ID 3310. Chart now overlays this as a dashed gray reference line
  • Policy scenario toggle on home page: Fixed releases (default, historical behavior) / Auto-tier releases (dynamic) / Emergency (Apr 2026) (dynamic + 1 MAF DROA augmentation)
  • Emergency advisory banner at top of home page citing the April 17, 2026 BOR announcement
  • Methodology page: new sections on Policy Scenarios, Emergency Actions (DROA + Section 6(E)), and Reconciliation with BOR's 24-Month Study
  • 16 new tests covering SWE regression bounds, tier-aware release multipliers, dynamic vs. static drawdown comparison, DROA augmentation, and BOR Dec 2026 reconciliation (60 tests total, all passing)

Fixed

  • Forecast no longer collapses to dead pool in drought scenarios. Previously, at SWE=1034 our base case projected dead pool (3,370 ft) by December 2026; BOR's Most Probable shows 3,471 ft. With the new clamp + Auto-tier policy, the model matches BOR's December projection within 10 ft when driven by comparable inputs

2026-03-19

Added

  • Daily data caching system (scripts/cache-data.mjs) — fetches USGS elevation + NOAA snowpack, runs 5 forecast scenarios, saves snapshots
  • GitHub Actions workflow (.github/workflows/daily-cache.yml) — runs daily at 6 AM UTC
  • Forecast snapshot storage (cache/forecasts/YYYY-MM-DD.json) — timestamped predictions for backtesting
  • Control dataset (cache/control.json) — accumulates actual observations for regression refinement
  • Cache-first data loading in data.js — checks cache/current.json (36h freshness), falls back to live APIs

Fixed

  • Chart x-axis now shows full forecast range on initial load (changed suggestedMax to max)

2026-03-14

Added

  • Navigation header (Home | API | Methodology) across all three pages
  • Dead pool clamp warning when forecast floors at 3,370 ft
  • Forecast input timestamp showing SWE, release multiplier, and generation date
  • Table of contents with anchor links on methodology.html
  • Water drop favicon on all pages
  • staticwebapp.config.json for public (no SSO) Azure SWA deployment
  • api.html — public forecast API with interactive form, URL hash API, JS module docs, and Claude/LLM integration instructions
  • methodology.html — white paper explaining the forecasting model for general audiences

Changed

  • Chart threshold annotations: staggered label positions, key thresholds (DROA, Min Power Pool, Dead Pool) shown larger/bolder with semi-transparent backgrounds
  • Home nav link uses ./ instead of /index.html for correct active state detection

Fixed

  • SSO blocking public access — added explicit staticwebapp.config.json with anonymous access

2026-03-13

Added

  • forecast.js — mass-balance forecast engine with SWE regression (R²=0.899), 20-point elevation-storage lookup table, monthly net storage model calibrated from 2020-2025 data
  • forecast.test.js — 44-test validation suite including 5-year hindcast (2020-2024), monotonicity checks, threshold analysis, and 2026 forward scenarios
  • data.js — client-side API fetch module for USGS elevation data, NOAA NCEI snowpack (10 SNOTEL stations), and historical April 1 SWE
  • index.html — main visualization page with Chart.js time-series, threshold annotations, interactive SWE/release sliders, hero stats, and consequence display
  • Initial deployment to Azure SWA (gpp-powell)

Research & Planning

  • Confirmed USGS Water Services API (site 09379900) for Lake Powell elevation with CORS
  • Identified NOAA NCEI as SNOTEL data source (NRCS endpoints unreachable)
  • Validated 10 Upper Colorado Basin SNOTEL stations return data via NCEI
  • Cataloged Glen Canyon Dam thresholds from 3,700 ft (full pool) to 3,370 ft (dead pool)
  • Designed mass-balance forecasting approach with volume-based (MAF) decline rates
  • Created PLAN.md with architecture, data sources, algorithm design, and phased implementation