diff --git a/src/signals/contributor-open-pr-monitor.ts b/src/signals/contributor-open-pr-monitor.ts
index 30769503b..48ffe571c 100644
--- a/src/signals/contributor-open-pr-monitor.ts
+++ b/src/signals/contributor-open-pr-monitor.ts
@@ -58,7 +58,10 @@ export async function buildContributorOpenPrMonitor(env: Env, login: string): Pr
   const pendingScenarios: ContributorOpenPrMonitor["pendingScenarios"] = [];
   const packets: ContributorOpenPrNextStepPacket[] = [];
 
-  for (const [repoFullName, repoOpen] of byRepo.entries()) {
+  for (const repoOpen of byRepo.values()) {
+    // The bucket is keyed case-insensitively (see groupByRepo); use a PR's original repoFullName casing for
+    // the case-sensitive DB lookups below so the per-repo open-PR set stays whole and queries still resolve.
+    const repoFullName = repoOpen[0]!.repoFullName;
     const repo = repositories.find((entry) => entry.fullName.toLowerCase() === repoFullName.toLowerCase()) ?? null;
     const roleContext = buildRoleContext({
       login,
@@ -215,9 +218,13 @@ function buildMonitorGuidance(packets: ContributorOpenPrNextStepPacket[], cleanu
 function groupByRepo(pullRequests: PullRequestRecord[]): Map<string, PullRequestRecord[]> {
   const map = new Map<string, PullRequestRecord[]>();
   for (const pr of pullRequests) {
-    const bucket = map.get(pr.repoFullName) ?? [];
+    // Key case-insensitively (GitHub repo names are case-insensitive), matching the registered-repo and
+    // repo-lookup handling elsewhere in buildContributorOpenPrMonitor — otherwise case-variant repoFullName
+    // values for one repo split into separate groups, under-counting open PRs and missing cross-case duplicates.
+    const key = pr.repoFullName.toLowerCase();
+    const bucket = map.get(key) ?? [];
     bucket.push(pr);
-    map.set(pr.repoFullName, bucket);
+    map.set(key, bucket);
   }
   return map;
 }
diff --git a/test/unit/contributor-open-pr-monitor.test.ts b/test/unit/contributor-open-pr-monitor.test.ts
index 6edde2683..54311296d 100644
--- a/test/unit/contributor-open-pr-monitor.test.ts
+++ b/test/unit/contributor-open-pr-monitor.test.ts
@@ -184,6 +184,29 @@ describe("contributor open PR monitor", () => {
     expect(monitor.guidance.length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
   });
 
+  it("groups case-variant repoFullName for one repo into a single open-PR set", async () => {
+    const env = createTestEnv();
+    vi.spyOn(repositories, "listRepositories").mockResolvedValue([
+      { fullName: "entrius/allways-ui", owner: "entrius", name: "allways-ui", isInstalled: true, isRegistered: true, isPrivate: false },
+    ] as Awaited<ReturnType<typeof repositories.listRepositories>>);
+    // The same repo arrives under two casings — these must be one group, not two.
+    vi.spyOn(repositories, "listContributorPullRequests").mockResolvedValue([
+      pr({ number: 30, repoFullName: "entrius/allways-ui" }),
+      pr({ number: 31, repoFullName: "Entrius/Allways-UI" }),
+    ]);
+    const listPrSpy = vi.spyOn(repositories, "listPullRequests").mockResolvedValue([pr({ number: 30 }), pr({ number: 31 })]);
+    vi.spyOn(repositories, "listPullRequestReviews").mockResolvedValue([]);
+    vi.spyOn(repositories, "listCheckSummaries").mockResolvedValue([]);
+    vi.spyOn(repositories, "listPullRequestFiles").mockResolvedValue([]);
+
+    const monitor = await buildContributorOpenPrMonitor(env, "miner-a");
+    expect(monitor.openPrCount).toBe(2);
+    // One merged group → the case-sensitive per-repo query runs only against a real repo casing, never the
+    // case-variant. Before the fix the two casings split into two groups and queried both.
+    expect(listPrSpy).toHaveBeenCalledWith(env, "entrius/allways-ui");
+    expect(listPrSpy).not.toHaveBeenCalledWith(env, "Entrius/Allways-UI");
+  });
+
   it("keeps public monitor output free of forbidden private language", async () => {
     const env = createTestEnv();
     vi.spyOn(repositories, "listRepositories").mockResolvedValue([