Index_Slides.Rmd

---
title: "Holistic Model Building: Supporting Decisions for Risks in Agroforestry Investment"
subtitle: "The 6th World Congress on Agroforestry 2025"
author: "Denise Margaret S. Matias¹, Cory W. Whitney²"
institute: "¹Eberswalde University, Germany,<br> ²University of Bonn, Germany"
date: "Kigali, Rwanda | 20-24 October 2025"
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# The Challenge: Complexity & Risk in Agroforestry

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### **Unique Risks in Agroforestry**

- **System Complexity**: Multiple species, longer time horizons
- **Farmer Burden**: New costs and management risks  
- **Climate Vulnerability**: Compounded by climate variability in tropics
- **Limited Tools**: Poor access to risk management instruments
![](figures/icon_trees_water.png)
]

.pull-right[
### **The Insurance Gap**

**Key Challenges:**
- 🎯 Risk Perception Gaps
- 📊 Limited Impact Data  
- 🔄 Complex Modeling
- 🌍 Cultural Barriers

**Critical Question**: Can insurance enhance sustainability of agroforestry investments?
]

---

# Our Transdisciplinary Approach

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### **Methodological Framework**

1. **Scoping Review**
   - Literature analysis
   - Risk assessment frameworks  
   - Insurance mechanisms

2. **Participatory Workshops**
   - Copenhagen, Bonn, Philippines
   - Indigenous communities
   - Multi-stakeholder engagement

]

.pull-right[
### **Stakeholder Engagement**

**Participant Groups:**
- Indigenous Communities → Local Knowledge
- Researchers → Scientific Models  
- Policy Makers → Policy Design
- Technical Experts → Implementation

**Tools Used**: Structured discussions, influence diagramming, knowledge integration
![](figures/icon_influence_diagram.png)
]

---
# Influence Diagram - Insurance Impacts
![](figures/full_pathway.png)
---

# Key Findings: Risk Perception & Reality

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### **The Perception Gap**

- **Significant divergence** between actual and perceived risks
- Risk perception shaped by:
  - Socioeconomic factors
  - Cultural context  
  - Environmental experience
- Influences insurance adoption decisions
]

.pull-right[
### **Workshop Insights**

**Risk Dimensions:**
- **Objective Risks**: Climate hazards, market volatility
- **Perceived Risks**: Cultural beliefs, past experiences  
- **Insurance Impact**: Mediated by perception gaps
![](figures/icon_weigh_risk.png)
**Critical Insight**: Insurance design must account for both objective and perceived risks
]

---

# Modeling Approach: From Concept to Simulation

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### **Conceptual Model Development**

- Analyzes interplay between:
  - Objective risks (climate, markets)
  - Perceived risks (farmer perspectives)
- Identifies decision pathways
- Integrates local and scientific knowledge
]

.pull-right[
### **Digital Implementation**

**Model Specifications:**
- Simulation Type → Monte Carlo
- Iterations → 10,000
- Analysis Method → Value of Information  
- Output → Opportunity costs, scenarios

**Focus**: Assess insurance scenarios and their impacts on agroforestry sustainability
]

---

# Results: Insurance Impact on Resilience

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### **Climate Shock Resilience**

- **Insured systems**: Higher resilience to climate shocks
- **Reduced conversion**: Lower likelihood of switching to monocultures
- **Economic stability**: Better risk management capabilities
]

.pull-right[
### **Comparative Analysis**

**System Performance:**
- Agroforestry + Insurance → High resilience, High biodiversity
- Agroforestry Only → Medium resilience, High biodiversity  
- Monoculture → Low resilience, Low biodiversity

**Key Finding**: Insurance coverage correlates with sustained agroforestry practices
]

---

# Indigenous Knowledge & Cultural Dimensions

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### **Traditional Wisdom**

- **Cultural practices** provide risk adaptation strategies
- **Local knowledge** informs understanding of environmental risks
- **Community-based** approaches to risk management
]

.pull-right[
### **Integration Imperative**

**Traditional Elements:**
- Cultural Practices → Maintain identity
- Traditional Knowledge → Context-specific solutions  
- Community Governance → Participatory design
- Local Risk Assessment → Accurate risk mapping

**Critical Insight**: Successful insurance requires blending traditional and contemporary approaches
]

---

# Biodiversity & Economic Synergies

.pull-left[
### **Conservation Incentives**

- Insurance reduces economic vulnerability
- Enables long-term biodiversity investments
- Supports complex, multi-species systems
- Promotes ecological resilience
]

.pull-right[
### **Economic-Biodiversity Links**

**Insurance Mechanisms:**
- Risk Reduction → Enables biodiversity investments
- Long-term Planning → Supports perennial systems  
- Diversification Support → Encourages species richness
- Ecosystem Services → Monetizes ecological benefits

**Key Benefit**: Insurance can incentivize biodiversity conservation through economic stability
]

---

# Implementation Framework & Policy Needs

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### **Participatory Design Process**

- Co-development with farmers
- Cultural sensitivity
- Local context adaptation
- Traditional knowledge integration
]

.pull-right[
### **Policy Support Requirements**

**Multi-level Approach:**
- Local → Community engagement
- National → Regulatory frameworks  
- International → Climate finance access

**Critical Success Factors:**
- Tailored approaches for biodiversity-rich systems
- Targeted policy support
- Multi-stakeholder collaboration
]

---

# Conclusions & Next Steps

.pull-left[
### **Key Contributions**

1. **Holistic Model**: Integrates risk perception and objective analysis
2. **Participatory Approach**: Bridges local and scientific knowledge
3. **Decision Support**: Provides tools for insurance design
4. **Sustainability Pathway**: Links insurance to biodiversity conservation
]

.pull-right[
### **Future Directions**

- Scale model to other regions
- Develop pilot insurance products
- Strengthen indigenous knowledge integration
- Policy engagement for implementation

**Data & Code Available:** https://zenodo.org/records/11051131
]

---

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# Thank You!

### Questions?

**Contact**: Denise Margaret S. Matias

<br>

**#WCA6 #Agroforestry2025 #RiskInsurance #SustainableInvestment**

.center[
*Bridging traditional wisdom and modern risk management for resilient agroforestry systems*
]